Singapore's 2011 general election campaign has been historic, and signals a major transformation in the country's political landscape.
The intensity and tone of this campaign has been unprecedented as the ruling PAP's (People's Action Party) record has come under attack. Tomorrow, Singapore undoubtedly, will be the focus of most Malaysians as the island republic goes to the polls.
While their interest - albeit only from across the causeway - would be purely in its democratic process,
there is bound to be keener interest on the Singapore Workers Party, one of only two opposition parties which have won seats in the 87-member parliament.
Observers said the interest would most certainly revolve around the fact that
it was a make-or-break situation for the Workers Party (WP) which has placed its best bets in the Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC).The WP was said to have taken a bold decision to contest the GRC, shifting away from its normal focus on Single Member Constituency, and further more, against People's Action Party (PAP) heavyweights led by Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo.
The WP has put up quite a formidable team, dubbed the 'Dream Team', for Aljunied GRC led by secretary-general Low Thia Khiang. The team includes its chairman, Sylvia Lim, Chen Show Mao, Pritam Singh and Faisal Abdul Manap to contest against the PAP heavyweights led by Yeo.
The GRC, first introduced by Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew during th! e 1988 e lection, is a unique electoral system which was established to ensure there will always be one elected member from each minority racial group in parliament.Some
2.35 million Singaporeans are eligible to vote in 27 constituencies to elect 87 members of parliament (MPs) tomorrow, as they can elect an MP in each of the 12 single member constituencies and four-to-six MPs in each of the 15 GRCs. For example, voters can elect 12 MPs for 12 single constituencies and 75 MPs for 15 GRCs (two six-MP GRCs, 11 five-MP GRCs and two four-MP GRCs).
What makes this election more interesting is the fact that opposition parties have never won a GRC, either the WP (with a total of 23 candidates), National Solidarity Party (24), and one each from Reform Party, Singapore Democratic Party, Singapore People's Party and Singapore Democratic Alliance.
Even the bravest among political pundits does not dare to say if there would be the slightest possibility for the opposition parties to win anywhere near the 44 seats needed to wrest power from the ruling PAP. But analysts said the result of the election would remain interesting due to rising discontent over bread-and-butter issues which could give the opposition more seats.
It was reported that
the reason why WP picked Aljunied with such a formidable team was that the opposition has gained 44 per cent of votes in the Aljunied GRC in the 2006 election and though it still lost, that was considered a glorious defeat.
WP was said to be counting on a highly-educated candidate, Chen Shao Mao(right), a 50-year-old lawyer holding economics degrees from Harvard, Stanford and Oxford universities and a partner with a prominent US-based law firm before returning home to contest in this election. Chen was dubbed by many as the 'biggest catch' by the opposition.
In the past, many opposition candidates were ridiculed for being relatively non-achievers compared to the PAP's picks, but Chen has changed that perception overnight when nearly 20,000 people turned up at a recent WP rally to listen to him.
The global phenomenon that the younger generation advocates the new media, has reportedly caused some worries to the ruling PAP when young Singaporeans started to obtain electoral and political information from the new media and that the opposition's website was said to be very popular, too.
One example was, as of 10am on May 3, the number of Singaporeans who joined the Facebook of 24-year-old Nicole Seah (left), a fresh woman candidate of the National Solidarity Party, was recorded at 60,244, and that of Workers Party's Chen's Facebook, 14,266 fans.
Will the number of fans and hits be translated into votes? Well, that's for Singaporeans to decide tomorrow.
Adakah tsunami politik akan berlaku di Singapura?
S'pore's political awakening likely to impact Johor
With more than half a million Malaysians working in Singapore, the apparent political shift in the Singapore election campaign is set to shake Malaysia's political landscape, especially in the southern state of Johor - deemed to be Umno last bastion in the peninsula. In this polls, described by many as the toughest battle faced by ruling party People's Action Party (PAP) since 1960s, the opposition campaign had gained impressive momentum, reflected by the attendance of animated crowds numbering in the tens of thousands at their mega-rallies over the past few days.
It has not only rung the PAP's alarm bell but also received wide coverage from both the international and Malaysian media.
"No question, Singapore's political opening will shape all those who are here to see politics differently, whether they are from Malaysia or Indonesia," said Bridget Welsh, an associate professor in political science at the Singapore Management University.
She pointed out that the island republic's good governance, security, better salaries and better provision of social services, which remain challenges in Malaysia, will have salience in Malaysian politics. "My own view is that Johor will be one of the battleground areas for the Malaysia's next general election, as Sarawak was recently," she said. Umno was founded in Johor and the state remained a BN stronghold, weathering the 'political tsunami' of the polls.
Effects of close proximityMost Malaysians working in Singapore! are eit her residing in Johor or originate from the southern state and travel daily to the island through the 1km-long causeway. The influence of Singapore on Johor is strengthened by the fact that Chinese Johoreans, especially those living at the southern part of the state, are loyal audience of Singapore's Mandarin TV channels. Therefore, some quarters used to attribute the Chinese Johoreans' long-time loyalty to the BN to the influence of Singapore's paternalistic politics practised by the ruling PAP.
On the other hand, observers of both Malaysia and Singapore politics believe that the 'political tsunami' in Malaysia 2008 general election and the opposition historic breakthrough in the recent Sarawak state polls have contributed partly to the sudden surge in support for the opposition in Singapore. "I do believe that there has been an international symbolic affect on the strengthening of the opposition in Singapore, especially the impact of Malaysia," said Welsh.
She pointed out that the Singapore opposition, comprising six major parties, has seen the need to be unified and work together from Malaysia. "It has seen the importance of common messaging from places such as Malaysia and Taiwan.
"The Pakatan Rakyat governments of Penang and Selangor have opened the eyes of Singaporeans, that alternatives do not necessarily fail," said Welsh in an email interview with Malaysiakini.
Changes spread by air"It is important not to discount the 'AirAsia' effect of greater exposure to diversity in the neighbourhood and broader global media coverage of changes in places such as the Middle East," she added, referring to Malaysia's low-cost air carrier providing budget flights to Southeast Asian countries.
Senior fellow with Singapore-based Institute of South East Asia Studies (ISEAS) Ooi Kee Beng concurred. "It is hard to say it doesn't connect (to Malaysia politics). There are half a million Malaysians here and Malaysia is the country that is most reported about ! by the m ainstream media here," he said when contacted yesterday.
Due to the frequent interaction between the peoples of both countries, it is believed the election results announced tomorrow will have reciprocal impact on Malaysian politics. "I do believe that the core issues of Singapore's campaign - inequality, cost of living, housing and healthcare - have extreme salience in Malaysia. "They were very powerful in 2008 and are likely to be so in any future campaign in Malaysia. These issues affect all ethnic communities across races," said Welsh.
Singapore's experience, she said, has made many Malaysians there to understand the need for a social welfare system that works and for a fairer system, even amidst economic success. "Economic growth is not enough for quality of life. Those being left out need to be addressed," she added.
Cyberspace kicks in hardMeanwhile, Ooi pointed out that the two countries, separated in 1965 due to a political divide, shared much common ground in their elections, particularly the emergence of the new generation of voters who, empowered by online new media, are willing to stand up to traditional authority.
"Regardless of the election results, something had already happened here. The culture of fear is broken, people do not fear threats anymore," said Ooi, adding that this polls will be a watershed in Singapore's political history. "I also see the impact of the new media and a greater willingness to speak out as most recently in the Middle East and earlier in Malaysia," added Welsh.
Similar to Malaysia, due to the muzzled mainstream media and the emergence of information technology-savvy young voters, new media like Facebook and Twitter have become an important pl! atform f or the opposition campaign.
The Internet effect in Singapore played a more significant role than in Malaysia as it is one of the countries with highest smart phone penetration in the world.Ooi observed that the new media had forced the Singapore mainstream media to allow space for issues and messages hotly debated in cyberspace. "If they don't say things there (in the Internet), they would look silly."
Indeed the state-controlled mainstream media had adopted some bold actions in this election such as airing live debates of representatives from both sides and giving more coverage to the opposition. However Ooi noted that its election coverage was still lopsided with the ratio of ruling and opposition news standing at 70:30.
Bloated egos may get comeuppanceAlthough bread-and-butter issue compounded by the huge influx of immigrants in recent years resonated well with voter sentiment, Ooi believed that the political elitism and arrogance demonstrated by PAP leaders will be the major factor that may swing the votes away from PAP. "The ministers replied to the issues raised by the opposition in a strange matter. They seemed disconnected from what the people worry about."
The same arrogance and elitism had been reflected by the BN and Umno in Malaysia's last polls that cost them their two-thirds parliamentary majority. However, Ooi observed that PAP's campaign managed to adapt itself to the new political reality faster unlike their Malaysian counterparts. "They moved much faster compared to Umno, more pre-emptive... They have the ability to adjust."
This was illustrated by the quick response of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to distance the party from ! his fath er and Singapore founding father Lee Kuan Yew, after the latter warned the voters of hot-seat Aljunied that they would have "five years to live and repent" should they vote against the PAP.
The son who is also PAP secretary-general responded by saying that the strongman politics practised by his father was no longer suitable for Singapore.This was followed by an open apology to Singaporeans for the government's mistakes and gaffes since the last polls, including the escape of suspected terrorist Mas Selamat and the Orchard Road flooding. On this, Ooi pointed out that
PAP leadership has already started the process of softening its political approach since 1990s under the leadership of the then prime minister Goh Chok Tong, gradually moving away from the old paternalistic style leadership.Nevertheless,
while Malaysians are experiencing the emergence of a vibrant two-party system after 2008, their neighbours still have a long way to go before catching up. "They are only prepared to have an opposition that they can take seriously," Ooi said.-
Kuek Ser Kuang Kengsource:malaysiakini
cheers
